Ideas Have People: The Killing of Zawahiri and the War on Terror – 2022
The article delves into the history and consequences of America’s war on terror, focusing on the recent killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri. The article further argues that the war on terror, triggered by the 9/11 attacks orchestrated by Zawahiri and Osama Bin Laden, has been flawed from its inception due to its focus on fighting an ideology rather than specific targets. This analysis traces the ideological roots of Zawahiri and Bin Laden back to Sayyid Qutb, an Egyptian author and revolutionary who inspired their radical beliefs in a confrontational Islam. The article suggests that the U.S. pursuit of an ill-defined ideology has played into the hands of its enemies, using the deaths of prominent leaders as recruitment tools. In this war against an intangible enemy, the author concludes that killing individuals like Zawahiri will not lead to victory, as long as the underlying ideology persists, and emphasizes the need to reassess the approach to counter terrorism.
Read the Room: How the Global South Views the Ukraine Conflict – 2023
In their co-authored article, Ehinger and Bryant critique the Western bloc’s approach, led by the United States and NATO, towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They argue that framing the conflict as a test for the whole world and demanding unity in isolating Russia fails to account for geopolitical factors like China’s closer ties with Russia and the growing divide between the Global North and Global South. They highlight how many countries in the Global South adopt a more neutral or even supportive stance towards Russia, diverging from the united condemnation seen in the Global North. The piece further cautions against assuming unanimous condemnation of Russia and emphasize the need for the US to accommodate diverse perspectives in an age of multipolarity, where the world is much bigger than Europe, and righteous dictation of events is no longer viable.
Belarus Could Have Been Neutral – 2023
The analysis explores the concept of neutrality for small countries situated between larger powers in an increasingly multipolar world. The article highlights historical examples of countries like Switzerland, Finland, and Yugoslavia that successfully navigated neutrality by balancing political concessions with great powers. However, the focus shifts to Belarus, which, despite attempting relative neutrality in the early post-Soviet era, was eventually forced to pick a side due to pressure from the United States. It is further argued that Belarus could have maintained its independence and autonomy if it had been allowed to pursue a more neutral path. The article criticizes the hardline approach taken by the U.S. in response to the 2020 Belarusian presidential elections, which resulted in alienation from the West and increased reliance on Russia, ultimately limiting Belarus’s options and compromising its autonomy. The author suggests that a more realistic and nuanced approach to dealing with non-democratic governments is essential for successful great power competition and the protection of American interests in a multipolar world.
Time and Logistics are Working Against Ukraine (Co-Authored with Zachary Yost)
The Ukraine conflict spotlights critical logistical challenges, with munitions, armaments, and manpower dwindling in the Western coalition’s support for Ukraine. Russian strikes have crippled Ukraine’s industrial base, incurring astronomical costs, as Congress approved over $113 billion in aid since February 2022, surpassing Ukraine’s annual GDP. The notion that hybrid warfare replaced conventional warfare post-Cold War is debunked as this conflict relies heavily on artillery and infantry reserves. Western nations prepared for only 30 days of high-intensity combat, similar to pre-World War I thinking. In contrast, Russia’s military apparatus is designed for large-scale warfare. The Western coalition, particularly the U.S., struggles to provide Ukraine with vital munitions. President Biden admitted to sending cluster munitions due to artillery shell shortages. While U.S. production may increase, it lags far behind Russia’s. NATO members face similar dilemmas, with Germany down to 20,000 artillery shells, and the U.K. unable to produce high-caliber gun barrels. Much of the equipment sent to Ukraine is poorly maintained, and frontline losses are substantial. Ukraine’s chance for a favorable settlement diminishes due to lagging armaments and manpower. Russia gains the upper hand, and re-industrializing the Western coalition’s military supply chains remains uncertain. This conflict might persist, as the logistical reality favors Moscow, challenging Western efforts to aid Ukraine against Russia’s industrial might.
Ukrainian Orthodoxy: Viewing a Modern Crisis Through a Historical Lens
This article delves into the complicated world the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and its many competitors. The intersection between politics and religion are one that define this conflict and this is what is explored in this piece for the Novodevichii Institute.
Nagorno-Karabakh: Historical analysis of a dynamic conflict at the fringes of the MENA-region
This article seeks to give the reader an understanding of the complex and ancient conflict at play in Nagorno Karabakh. Readers can expect to be informed on the basis and origins of many of the conflicts that rose to open violence in the past few years. They can also gain an understanding of how Azerbaijan was able to win in these recent battles as well as why Armenia had previously been victorious. Overall this article is meant to be an introduction to those whom the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict is foreign to them.
Macron’s Third Way: An Effective Strategy? Co-Authored with Julia Antone
This article seeks to understand why Macrons policy towards Russia has taken shape the way that it has and the strengths and failures that this has entailed. There is a brief explanation of the conflict in Ukraine from the French perspective as well as how they have sought to set their foreign policy apart from the rest of NATO.
The Consequences of Good Intentions Co-Authored with Zachary Yost
In this article Zachary Yost and I detail the curent efforts in trying to keep Ukraine in the fight against Russia. Along the way Western governments have made promises to Ukraine for victory that ultimately can’t be realized. Internal divisions within European governments as well as Ukraine have made the outcome of the war all but a foregone conclusion
This article is a review of the book “The Sources of Russian Agression” by Dr. Sumantra Maitra. In this review I discuss the main causes and effects of Russian agression. Avoiding sensationalism and focusing on data, this review is a good starting point for anyone wanting to get a deeper understanding of Russia’s role on the world stage.
The Kursk Offensive is No Game Changer For Ukraine
This was a submission for the National Interest’s symposium on the then current Kursk offensive undertaken by Ukraine in the summer of 2024. This piece explains why the Kursk offensive has not meaningfully changed any of Ukraine’s disadvantages in this war.
Matthew Bryant 